Wednesday, August 23, 2006

AFC North

1. Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)

Head Coach: Marvin Lewis (4th year)
2005 Record: (11-5)
Key Acquisitions: DT Sam Adams, S Dexter Jackson, QB Anthony Wright.
Key Departures: QB Jon Kitna, TE Matt Schobel

In 2005, the Bengals saw their dreams of going deep into the postseason get shattered in the beginning of their wild-card matchup with Pittsburgh, when Carson Palmer blew out his knee. The whole team would eventually falter in the second half and let the Steelers run away with the victory. In 2006, Cincinnati looks to rebound with a team that very much resembles the one they fielded last year. On offense, Carson Palmer returns to lead the NFL’s second most potent offense. As of this writing, Palmer still hasn’t participated in a pre-season game, but reports out of training camp say that he is looking great, and he has come out and said that he plans to see his first action on Monday, August 28 against the Packers. If he is healthy, Palmer is one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He is big and strong, and quite mobile for such a big man. He also has a Marino-like feeling for the rush, and he slides very well inside the pocket. Palmer throws the prettiest deep ball in the league, and he can make every throw in the book. Physically, he is as gifted as any QB out there. If he can’t start the season, which is unlikely at this point, new acquisition Anthony Wright will hold the fort until Palmer is ready.

But while Palmer is the unquestioned leader of this offense, he has many weapons at his disposal. It starts at wide receiver, with perhaps the most entertaining player in the league in Chad Johnson. Johnson has a big mouth, but he has the big-play capability to back it up. In the last 2 years, he has become one of the top 5 receivers in the game. On the opposite side of the field, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who also had a spectacular season last year, is the perfect compliment to Johnson. Together they form what might be the best pair of receivers in the league. The main backup is Chris Henry, a big target with speed to burn, but he has had troubles with the law, so a suspension is likely. After that, depth is a concern. At running back, Rudi Johnson is back with his bruising style. Since coming on in relief of Corey Dillon 3 years ago, Johnson has carried the ball more than back in the league but one. Very rarely does he have a bad game. The change of pace back, Chris Perry, got injured this pre-season. The Bengals would love to get him the ball more, but he is expected to miss the start of the season, so the diminutive Kenny Watson becomes the de-facto #2. But when talking about the Cincinnati offense, we have to mention the offensive line, one of the best in the business. OLT Levi Jones has developed into one of the best pass protectors in the league, and he also has a nasty streak. On the other side, Willie Anderson is the consummate professional. He is getting old, but his technique is still great and he is the leader of the line. LG Eric Steinbach is starting to get recognition as one of the best guards in the NFL, and RG Robbie Williams and C Rich Brahman are more than solid starters. Furthermore, this group has great depth, and they have been playing together for 3 straight years now, and the results are evident.

On defense, the acquisition of DT Sam Adams will help tremendously against the run, the weak spot of this defense. Adams can get lazy at times and at his age, he cannot stay on the field for a full game, but he is huge. He creates big problems for offensive with his size, and his presence will help the linebackers do their job. Next to Adams will line-up John Thornton, who had a fine season last year with 58 tackles, 2 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. At DE, Justin Smith returns after registering 92 tackles and leading the team in sacks (6). Smith is not spectacular, but he does everything right. Bryan Robinson, a former DT who missed 6 games last year, will start opposite Smith.

Earlier in the off-season, Cincinnati learned that they would have to do without MLB Odell Thurman for the first 4 games of the year because of a suspension. Thurman was spectacular as a rookie last year, leading the team with 148 tackles. But Marvin Lewis seems to be disappointed in the youngster, so it remains to be seen whether Thurman regains his starting spot when he comes back. WLB Brian Simmons, one of the most complete linebackers in the league, will move in the middle. Landon Johnson, who has played in the middle before, moves into Simmons’ weakside spot. David Pollack, the prized first-rounder from last year, returns on the strong side. After a difficult rookie campaign, he has looked great in training camp and seems poised to have a big season.
But perhaps the best area of the Bengals defense is the secondary. Cornerbacks Tory James and Deltha O’Neal are big-time gamblers, but they do get a lot of interceptions. Keiwan Ratliff provides good depth and rookie Jonathan Joseph has reportedly looked good in camp so far. At safety, Dexter Jackson comes over from Tampa, and he knows the defense really well, so he should fit in nicely alongside SS Madieu Williams, a budding superstar.

In a way, the Bengals are exactly where the Colts were 2-3 years ago. They have a nearly unstoppable offense, but the defense is a work in progress. And while the “D” should be a bit better this year, it remains to be seen whether Carson Palmer can dissect defenses as well as he did last year. Still, when it comes to pure talent, the Bengals are the class of this division, and that should be enough to translate into a division title.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)

Head Coach: Bill Cowher (14th year)
2005 Record: (11-5)
Key Acquisitions: S Ryan Clark.
Key Departures: S Chris Hope, RB Jerome Bettis, WR Antwaan Randle El, DE Kimo Von Oelhoffen.

The Super Bowl XL Champions return with their championship winning team almost intact. Sure, they suffered a few losses, but not one of these players is irreplaceable. QB Ben Roethlisberger comes back to lead an offense that should be better and a little more open now that the youngster is in his 3rd year. In 2005, as the season went on, offensive coordinator Ken Wisenhunt gave more and more leeway to Roethlisberger, especially at the start of games, and ‘Big Ben’ was more than up to the task. The 6’5”, 241 lbs. quarterback is 27-4 in his career, and he is looking to build on that. Most experts agree that he is ready to become a good “fantasy” quarterback as well. Look for the Steelers to expand their offense back to what it was about 3 years ago with Tommy Maddox at the helm: a power running offense that can surprise you with empty backfields and 2-minute drills at any time in the game.

For all his prowess, Roethlisberger probably would’ve never enjoyed half the success he’s had if it hadn’t been for the incredible offensive line playing in front of him. Now that Steve Hutchinson has left Seattle and that former Chief Willie Roaf has retired, the Steelers boasts the best left side in the league. LG Alan Faneca is a fixture on the Pro Bowl squad every year, and LT Marvel Smith is as steady as they come. Both are just as efficient in run blocking as they are in pass blocking. Jeff Hartings had another great year at center. A natural guard, he can pull better than most centers in the league and he is very athletic. He is also very good at recognizing blitzes and making adjustments, and he is a great help to his young quarterback. On the right side, Kendall Simmons is, when healthy, as good a right guard as there is in this league. Last year, he went injury-free and had a great season. RT Max Starks is big and strong (6’8”, 340 lbs.) but he lacks the finish of his counterparts. This is a line that has played together for a long time, and they are perhaps the best group in the league.

At running back, ‘Fast’ Willie Parker is looking for a big season. Reports out of training camp have him being a more patient and a more complete back than last year, when he went over 1,200 yards. Parker has great speed and sees the cutback lane very well, but if he can learn to let his blocks develop in front of him, he can be a great back for a long time. Backing him up, and at the same time taking Bettis’ old spot will be Duce Staley. If healthy, and if he hasn’t lost too much of a step, Staley can definitely fill Bettis’ shoes on the field. But if he isn’t up to the task, look for Parker to see action in short-yardage situations. Vernon Hayes is the 3rd down back.

At wide receiver, Hines Ward returns as the vocal leader of the offense. Ward is a pleasure to watch on the field. He catches every ball he touches, and he is fearless over the middle. He is very reminiscent of former Viking Cris Carter in this way. But he is also the best blocking receiver in the league. He is actually a better blocker than most tight ends, and he helped spurn many long gains last year. Starting opposite him will be Cedric Wilson, who really came on strong towards the end of last season. Wilson also had a strong playoff. Rookie Santonio Holmes comes in as the slot receiver. A smaller receiver in the mold of Santana Moss, figures to see plenty of action. The Steelers plan to use his speed a lot against nickel corners. Like Randle El before him, Holmes will create a lot of matchup problems. Tight end Heath Miller rounds out the skill position players. Miller doesn’t have the great stats, but he is a gamer. He makes a lot of clutch catches, and Roethlisberger likes to look for him in the red zone too.

On defense, the Steelers are led by blitz genie Dick Lebeau. The most important position in the ‘Blitzburgh’ defense is linebacker, and the team returns its 4 starters from last year. OLB Joey Porter gets the sacks, and he gets the press clippings with his loud mouth, but he is a real leader on this defense. And what you won’t read in his stats is that a lot of his sacks were very timely, and when the defense needed a big play, he would come up with it. ILB James Farrior is a tackling machine who should’ve been defensive MVP in the league 2 years ago. Last year, his play tailed off a bit at the start of the season, but he got better as the season wore on and he was a monster in the playoffs. Clark Haggans (9 sacks) and Larry Foote (101 tackles) are the other starters. There is very good depth here, which is not surprising at all.

On the defensive line, the loss of DE Kimo Von Oelfhoffen will hurt the depth, but Brett Kiesel is more than ready to step in his place. As a backup last year, Keisel totaled 3 sacks. At the other end, Aaron Smith returns after another stellar year. Smith is the ultimate 3-4 defensive end. He can rush the passer, but he is especially adept at holding off blockers and letting the linebackers do their work. Casey Hampton returns as the NT. When healthy, he is as important to this defense as any other player on the field. He is so big, and so quick for such a big man, that he commands a double team all the time.

The defensive backfield has now become a strength on this team. SS Troy Polamalu is the superstar of the group. He makes the big hits and the spectacular plays. He is one of the best 3 or 4 safeties in the league, and he covers more ground than any other player out there. He will miss having FS Chris Hope at his side, but Ryan Clark should be an adequate replacement. At cornerback, Pittsburgh has very good starters and even better depth. Ike Taylor and Deshea Townsend are the starters, but Bryant McFadden and Ricardo Coclough could both be starters on some teams in the league. This is a very deep group.

The Steelers will be fielding a team that should be just as good as last year’s championship team. Still, that does not spell repeat for them. They play in a tough division and they will face a very hard schedule. This is a proud team, full of leadership, with loads of talent and great coaches, and that should be enough to get them into the playoffs, but not to the Super Bowl, not for a second time.

3. Baltimore Ravens (7-9)

Head Coach: Brian Billick (7th year)
2005 Record: (6-10)
Key Acquisitions: RB Mike Anderson, QB Steve McNair, DE Trevor Pryce.
Key Departures: S Will Demps, RB Chester Taylor, QB Anthony Wright

The 2006 Baltimore Ravens are one of those teams full of question marks. They are one of those teams that always seem to be ready to make a move back in the league’s elite, but always come short of expectations.

This year, they’ve added QB Steve McNair of the Titans. McNair will be an improvement over incumbent Kyle Boller, no doubt. Still McNair is getting old and his body is battered. He is always a risk to get injured too, and he is not the passer he was earlier in his career. That being said, he will make far less mistakes than Boller made, and he will provide leadership to an offense that desperately needs it.

McNair will be reunited with his old favorite target with the Titans, Derrick Mason. Mason is on the wrong side of 30, but he is still a very good possession receiver. Second year man Mark Clayton figures to start opposite him, but Clayton has been hampered by injuries during training camp. Clayton’s main attribute is his speed and his ability to work the slot, so if he isn’t 100%, he can’t be very effective. There isn’t much depth here, so the 3 and 4 receiver packages aren’t very strong. Still, the Ravens have a very good tight end in Todd Heap. McNair likes to use the tight end a lot in the passing game, so Heap could see his numbers skyrocket.

At running back, Jamal Lewis figures to be the starter again. But Lewis is getting old, and he is looking slow. He will face tough competition all year long from ex-Bronco Mike Anderson, but Billick might put him at fullback, a position he played from time to time in Denver. The wildcard here is Musa Smith, a young back who has been buried behind the elder Smith and the departed Chester Taylor. Musa Smith is younger and is a much better pass receiver than the other 2 backs. Many think that he will be starting by season’s end.

The defense is still full of big names, but it is getting older. Ray Lewis is only a shadow of the player he once was. He still has all the heart, and he is still a very vocal leader, but he doesn’t swarm to the ball like he once did, and he was never great at taking on blockers. Adelius Thomas is quite good on the strong side, but Bart Scott is average at best on the weakside. The loss of Ed Hartwell really hurt them last year, and the team has not replaced him yet.

If there is to be one saving grace for the linebackers, it is the drafting of DT Haloti Ngata. Ngata is a big man, and he can really disrupt blocking schemes. He apparently has looked very good in camp so far, and he has had a pretty good pre-season. Still, the jury is out on Ngata, who got a reputation in college of being somewhat of a slacker and taking many plays off. But if he keeps himself in check and plays hard, he will be a great addition to the team. Kelly Gregg will be the other starter. At DE, Terrell Suggs is the big-time player. With no one to apply pressure across from him last year, Suggs finished with only 8 sacks (down from 11 in 2004). But this year, Baltimore added former Bronco Trevor Pryce. Pryce is getting old, and hasn’t had double digit sacks in 6 years, but he can still rush the passer. 2nd year man Dan Cody, who missed almost all of last year with an injury, will provide depth and come in on passing downs when Pryce moves inside.

In the secondary, the star is Ed Reed. Along with Troy Polamalu of Pittsburgh and Brian Dawkins of Philadelphia, Reed might be the best safety in the league. Reed is a huge hitter, but he also has a lot of range and has a real knack for getting interceptions. He did miss 6 games last year, but he is back at full strength now. Whatever anybody says, this is his defense now, not Ray Lewis’. The untested Gerome Sapp will replace the departed Will Demps at the other safety spot, and that’s a big drop-off. Yet, if the Ravens can get more pressure on the quarterback than last year, the difference won’t be too noticeable. At cornerback, Chris McAlister is still mentioned amongst the best corners in the game, but his play fell off last year (only 1 INT). Opposing QB’s did not throw his way as much, but he gambles too much and can be beaten deep. At the other corner, the aging Samari Rolle is the starter. Like McAlister, Rolle had an unspectacular year, grabbing only 1 INT. Rolle is not the shutdown corner he once was in his best years with the Titans, but his technique is still very good and he plays a more conservative style that fits him well. Depth is a concern.

The main problem the Ravens will face this year is facing, once again, the Steelers and the Bengals twice each. Carson Palmer has now made it a habit of destroying the Baltimore defense, and Pittsburgh is always a tough opponent. With these matchups, and trips to Tampa and Denver, as well as games against Carolina and San Diego, this will be a tough season for Baltimore. So, while we think their team will be much improved from last year, their record won’t be much different.

4. Cleveland Browns (5-11)

Head Coach: Romeo Crennel (2nd year)
2005 Record: (6-10)
Key Acquisitions: C LeCharles Bentley, WR Joe Jurevicius, LB Willie McGinnest, OT Kevin Shaffer, DT Ted Washington.
Key Departures: WR Antonio Bryant, DT Jason Fisk, DE Kenard Lang, TE Aaron Shea, OT L.J. Shelton

The Browns are a team that is under construction. Romeo Crennel is a man that is well-respected by his peers, and the consensus is that he knows what he is doing, and that he and GM Phil Savage are building a team that will eventually win in this league. But that time is still at least a season away, and this promises to be another tough year for Browns fans.

2nd year pro Charlie Frye is the quarterback. Frye is a cool customer that will be a very good QB in this league for a long time. He plays well under pressure, puts a lot of zipon his passes and throws a very good deep ball. He also moves quite well, but he is still very inexperienced and can’t read defenses that well yet. He will have to grow up fast for this offense to be any good. The main problem at the quarterback position, though, is not the starter, but the fact that there is no quality backup. Ex-49er Ken Dorsey is the best of the bunch. But when he was in San Francisco, Dorsey was awful at best. And reports out of training camp have him not looking too good. So Frye will need to be stay healthy as well, otherwise it could get really ugly.

Compounding the problem is the fact that the rushing offense is nothing to write home about either. Last year, the team finished 25th in the league in that category. During the off-season, the Browns brought in Ruben Droughns from Denver. Droughns is a former fullback who loves to hammer it between the tackles. He also has good vision and is a good cut back runner. Things will be a lot different for him with a much more porous offensive line in Cleveland, but his running style should help him be at least a little bit successful.

Now, if Kellen Winslow Jr. and Braylon Edwards can stay healthy this year, the passing game might threaten a little bit. Winslow has played 2 games in 2 years, but he seems ready to come back. He might not be the player he could’ve been before his injuries, but reports out of training camp have him being a force in the middle of the field and running well enough. Edwards is another story. While he is ahead of schedule, he shouldn’t expected back to the field until October. Before he got injured last year, Edwards was really coming into his own. There is no doubt that he will know the offense a lot better this year, and he has been practicing long balls a lot with Frye in the off-season, so there should be some chemistry there. Expect him to make a big impact when he comes back. Starting opposite Edwards will be Dennis Northcutt. Joe Jurevicius, who comes over from Seattle, will start in Edwards spot until he comes back. Jurevicius has never lived up to expectations, but he is very sure handed and works the underneath areas very well. Look for him to become a comfort blanket for the young Frye, especially when he moves to the slot after Edwards comes back.

Aside from the health of the receiving corps, the biggest wild card in how this offense will perform is the offensive line. C LeCharles Bentley was given millions to be the lede of the squad and anchor it for years to come, but he blew out his knee in the offseason. His backup, Bob Hallen, retired. Next in line was Alonzo Ephraim, but he was suspended for the first 4 games of the year. So the starter figures to be ex-Patriot Ross Tucker. Useless to say, depth is a concern. Also, the rest of the line doesn’t look too good either. LT Kevin Shaffer, who comes over from Atlanta, is more of a run blocker. All the other projected starters have huge medical histories, and depth is a real concern at each spot. If everyone stays healthy, the line should be able to build a rapport and there is enough talent for them to be an adequate group. But the slightest little injury could make everything fall apart.

On defense, the situation seems to be similar as on offense. For instance, the starters on the defensive line are all seasoned performers who can do a good job. NT Ted Washington is perfect for a 3-4 defense. He will be spelled on passing downs, but he will be a force against the run. DE Orpheus Roye is a converted def. tackle who should provide good support against the run. Alvin McKinley is the other end, and he chipped in with 5.0 sacks last season. But behind them, there isn’t much help. Again, one injury could prove disastrous.

At linebacker, things are looking a lot better. Willie McGinnest comes in and will man the strong side. He will also provide a ton of leadership and will be a great role model for the 2 rookies. First round pick Kamerion Wimbley is expected to take over the weaskside position. Wimbley is long and lean, and he is very fast, making him the classic edge rusher. He should flourish under Crennel. D’Qwell Jackson, a second rounder, is already penciled in at the RILB position. Jackson is very active, and he has been making plays all over the field in training camp. He will be joined by holdover Andra Davis, who led the team with 149 tackles last year. Depth is less of a concern here with Matt Stewart and Clifton Smith both capable of being starters.

The secondary is still a work in progress. At cornerback, Daylon McCutcheon is one of the starters, but he is hurt right now. He does hope to be ready for the opener though. At the other corner, 2005 starter Gary Baxter is back from last year’s injury (which cost him 10 games), but he might be looking at the nickel job. It is being said that Leigh Bodden, who replaced Baxter last year, is looking like the best corner in camp for the Browns right now. With a healthy McCutcheon and Bodden looking better everyday, cornerback is a strong position for the team. There is also depth at safety, although there is far less talent. Brian Russell is in at free safety. Russell had one big year with Minnesota (2003 – 9 INT’s), but he is mostly a liability in coverage and lacks range. At strong safety, Sean Jones figures to be the starter, with Brodney Pool backing him up. Both are former second round draft choices and big hitters.

Again, this figures to be another hard year for Browns fans. The team has assembled some good starters, but depth is a concern at almost every position. If Cleveland wants to improve on last year’s record, they will have to provide much more of a pass rush, protect the QB better and have a semblance of a running game. And given the shape of the offensive line, the last 2 are not likely to happen. We do feel like the defense will be much improved, but that will not be enough.


At 4:23 PM, Blogger Nick the Dick said...

Hey Dwarf, Cheesehead would like to know from which website you are copying your predictions? She would like to write herself but she's experiencing "technical issues" (I guess she probably has the technical knowledge required to get a job at Tiscali) that prevent her to access your blog.

At 4:48 PM, Blogger Veillotron said...

Is cheesehead liane?

At 4:51 PM, Blogger Veillotron said...

Isn't Cheesehead the name of SpongeBob SquarePants' girlfriend?

At 7:10 PM, Blogger The Dwarf said...

To annswer your stupid and useless question, Mr. Dick, I have gathered information on training camps around the league from (John Clayton, Len Pasquarelli and Michael Smith), (Peter King, Don Banks and Dr.Z) and (all their writers are quite good). That's where I get my news and expert analysis.

After that, I add my own opinions to the mix and that's how I come up with my predictions.

At 7:32 PM, Blogger Nick the Dick said...

A cheesehead is a cheeser, a cheeser is someone who cheeses an answer, someone who cheeses an answer is someone who cheated in order to get an answer, a cheater is a cheeser, and a cheeser is a cheesehead. Therefore, Liane is a cheesehead.

The original display of a "cheesehead" hat was at a Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago White Sox game in 1987 when the Brewers started the season 13-0. It was handmade out of foam, painted yellow. The wearer of that original foam hat then had the idea of starting a business selling cheeseheads hats. The "Cheesehead" trademark is owned by Foamation, Inc. of St. Francis, Wisconsin, which began manufacture of the wearable, foam cheesehead in 1987.

Dwarf, I will make sure Cheesehead reads you answer. It's good to know that you're making up that stuff all by yourself. And there are no stupid questions, just stupid answers.

At 9:59 AM, Blogger Veillotron said...

OK Dwarf, I have a few issues with this AFC North review:

A) ‘Fast’ Willie Parker? I think this is the worst nickname ever. Dwarf, if you invented this nickname, you suck, and if you only copied it, you suck even more.

B) You are not giving enough respect to the Ravens. I am not a big fan of them, but I think they will do better. They have always been a good team with a shitty quarterback - now that they have one they should go far.

C) Dwarf, talking about the Ravens, you wrote: "So, while we think their team will be much improved..." who is this "we"? Is it there becuase you copy-pasted somebody else's comments and tried to make them pass as your own, or do you simply have multiple personalities/ some serious ego problem??

NickTheDick, you better give me my propz!

At 10:59 AM, Blogger The Dwarf said...

To Veillotron:

- Willie Parker's nickname is 'Fast Willie'. That's how his teammates call him, just like T.O. is Terrell Owens' nickname.

- I think the Ravens will have a better offense indeed, but I think the defense is not as strong as it used to be. And in a division where the Steelers and the Bengals will look to dominate, it will be hard for the Ravens to have a better record than that.

- The "we" just makes it sound like I have a whole team working for me on this thing. It sounds more professional...

At 2:17 PM, Blogger Veillotron said...

Dwarf, get a better nickname for Willie (I don't know, maybe Wille "Wonka" Parker?) or somthing, but PLEASE not Fast Willie. I don't care his brain-dead teammates were stupid enough to come up with that, you gotta change it...

I don't buy your excuse for the "we"... you egomaniac freak!

At 9:32 PM, Blogger Veillotron said...

Much propz to the Dwarf. MAy his analysis and predictions bring me much money

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