Pit 28 - Mia 17... and AFC South preview

Hey all...

Just finished watching the Pittsburgh-Miami game... here are a few impressions from what I saw:

- Pittsburgh looked good on offense even without Roethlisberger. They pounded the ball down Miami's throats, and it paid dividends in the second half when the Dolphins couldn't stop Willie Parker at all. They used the run to setup the pass very well. Best example of that? The 87-yeard touchdown by Heath Miller. Batch faked to Parker and both safeties bit. Miller ran past Zach Thomas (who looked old and slow tonight), caught the ball and neve looked back. This is an offense that might actually become explosive when Big Ben comes back.

- Daunte Culpepper looked an awfully lot more like the 2005 Culpepper than the 2004 one. He was tentative for a lot of the game and his passes weren't that sharp. And towards the end of the second half he imploded. First, he panicked on a corner blitz and lofted a big air ball towards the sideline that was intercepted by Polamalu. Then, on his very next pass, he never read Joey Porter dropping back and threw the ball right in his hands. Porter took it back down the field to score the TD that put Miami away. Then, on his next pass, he overthrew Chris Chambers. And right after that he took a bad 8-yard sack when he should've thrown it away.

- Miami played the whole game without a running game. If they want Culpepper to get back on his feet next game, they'll need to help him with at least a semblance of a running game. Ronnie Brown needs to start living up to his #2 draft choice billing fast, or Miami's playoffs hopes will go down the drain fast.

- In defense of the Dolphins misfirings on offense, the Steelers "D" just looks good. Dick LeBeau is really a genius at disguising coverages and had Culpepper on his heels on night long. But please (and I'm talking to you Bryant McFadden), stop jumping around like you just won the Super Bowl after making a tackle or a big hit. It's your job dumbass. I don't see you crying when you miss a tackle, so why would I have to watch you gloat when you do make one? Just get up and hope you can do it again on the next play.

Now, onto our preview of the AFC South...

AFC SOUTH

1. Indianapolis Colts (12-4)

Head Coach: Tony Dungy (5th year)
2005 Record: (13-3)
Key Acquisitions: PK Adam Vinatieri
Key Departures: RB Edgerrin James, PK Mike Vanderjagt, LB David Thornton, DT Larry Tripplett, WR-KR Troy Walters

Overview:
The Colts needed 14 games to experience their first loss in 2005. But after a splendid regular season that saw them post a 13-3 record, they once again fell short of expectations in the playoffs, losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the divisional round. PK Mike Vanderjagt, who was made the scapegoat in the defeat after he missed a 46-yard field goal as time expired, is gone. So are star running back Edgerrin James and linebacker David Thornton. Vanderjagt, an excellent kicker who was prone to mistakes under pressure, as well as putting the proverbial foot in his mouth, has been replaced by maybe the best clutch kicker in history, Adam Vinatieri. James will be replaced by Dominic Rhodes, who once rushed for over 1,000 yards when James was hurt in 2001, and promising rookie Joseph Addai. With their 3 star receivers and Peyton Manning at the helm, you can bet the offense will not miss a beat without James. So the Colts are hoping that the golden foot of Vinatieri can help them win a game or two more in January to take them to the Super Bowl.

For all the talk about him not having won the big game yet, Peyton Manning is still the most prolific passer of his generation. He is a modern day Dan Marino, so to speak. Manning can make every throw on the field, and he is the ultimate general in the huddle. Offensive coordinator Tom Moore gives him all the latitude he needs to make adjustments at the line, and he is the best quarterback at directing a no-huddle offense since Jim Kelly did it with Buffalo’s K-Gun offense in the early and mid-90’s. Manning also takes very few bad decisions, so he doesn’t throw a lot of interceptions.

For the first time in years, Manning will not have “The Edge” lining up behind him. In his place will be Dominic Rhodes, most of the time anyway. Rhodes does not pick up the blitz as well as James, nor is he as a receiver, but he is the same type of “slasher” runner as James. He also knows the offense very well. Addai can do everything. He is a big back who like to take one cut and then go. He has good speed, and he can either run over defenders or juke them out. As a rookie, he is not yet adept at picking up the blitz, but he will learn fast. Count on him possibly starting by year’s end.

Wide receiver is the position that makes this offense so hard to defend against. It all starts with All-Pro Marvin Harrison. Harrison is not big, but he can make every catch in the book, and his hands are like glue. On the other side is Reggie Wayne, who exploded last year. Wayne decided to pass up the opportunity to test free agency in order to come back to the Colts. Look for him to have another big year. Brandon Stokley mans the slot. Stokley is the smallest of the three receiver, but he might be the fastest. He is also fearless over the middle, and he is especially clutch on third downs. Terrance Wilkins, who will double as the punt and kick returner, comes in on 4-receiver sets. Dallas Clark, who took over the tight end position when Marcus Pollard left last year, has great hands and knows how to get open. He gives Manning yet another security blanket.

The reason the Colts were so dominant last year is that the defense finally caught up to the offense. Tony Dungy finally got the ingredients he needed to make his cover-2 scheme work, and boy did it ever. The defensive line has become one of the best in the league. Dwight Freeney, who looks like a small pinball out there, collected 11.0 sacks last year. More importantly, because he is almost always double-teamed, he allowed Robert Mathis, who plays opposite him, to collect 11.5 sacks of his own. Look for the pair to total over 20 sacks again this year. Inside, the Colts have 3 starting-caliber tackles. Monte Reagor (5.5 sacks) is very quick and can get around blockers. Raheem Brock moves from defensive end, and look for him to create havoc on pass plays. Corey Simon, who came from the Eagles last year, also figures to see a lot of playing time. The one knock against this unit is that they can be bullied by bigger, power-running offensive lines. But Indy’s offense scores so many points that opposing teams are usually forced to pass more than they want.

At linebacker, the loss of David Thornton will no doubt hurt a lot. He will be replaced by Gilbert Gardner, who observers say should do an adequate job. Still, Thornton was a rising star. On the weakside, smallish Cato June returns. June is really fast and makes plays sideline to sideline. He isn’t very good when he has to take on blocks, but he usually has a lot of space on the weakside. The middle linebacker is Gary Brackett, who, like, June, is very small but very fast. This is a linebacker group that is built to defend the pass, and they are very good at that. But like the defensive line, they can struggle against running teams.

The secondary is not star-studded, but it is deep. The Colts feature 3 cornerbacks that fit the system very well. Jason David and Nick Harper, the starters, are not your typical cover corners, but they are very physical and are excellent in zone coverages. Converted safety Marlin Jackson is the nickel back. Bob Sanders is a future star at free safety. He made his mark last year with his bone crushing hits. He had 92 tackles but only 1 interception. He will have to do better in that department this year. Mike Doss, who is also very physical, is the strong safety. As a group, the five of them only had 9 interceptions last year, and with teams passing so much against them, they have to improve on that number this year.

The Colts play in a fairly weak division, so the crown is theirs. You can also expect them to gain home field advantage throughout the playoffs. But while the regular season is where Indianapolis has shined in recent years, they have to take the next step in the playoffs this year. With a team that has that much talent, it is only a question of time until it happens. It says here that 2006 will be the year it all comes together for the Colts.


2. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7)

Head Coach: Jack Del Rio (4th year)
2005 Record: (12-4)
Key Acquisitions: OT Stockar McDougle
Key Departures: LB Akin Ayodele, OT Ephraim Salaam, S Deke Cooper

Overview:
In 2005, the Jaguars went 8-1 against teams playing under .500 en route to 12-4 record and a wild-card berth. But in the playoffs, they got destroyed by the Patriots. Indeed, the Jaguars probably were not as good as their record indicated. They have one of the best 5 defenses in the league, but their offense is mediocre at best. But in a division that is this weak, expect the Jaguars to get the second place by default.

The centerpiece of the offense is Quarterback Byron Leftwich. Leftwich has a big arm and he is tough as nails, but he is pretty immobile and tends to hold on to the ball too long. Still, last year he threw for 15 TD’s despite missing the last 5 games of the season and he finished with a 89.3 rating. But in the playoffs, the Patriots constantly dropped 7 guys in coverage and Leftwich struggled to get rid of the ball. His backup, Steven Garrard, will never be more than a backup, but he is a good one and he knows the offense. If Leftwih goes down again, he should be able to fill in adequately.

The biggest problem Leftwich will have this year is finding targets. WR Jimmy Smith, who was the Jaguars’ best receiver by a mile and doubled as Leftwich’s security blanket, retired unexpectedly in the offseason. That leaves Ernest Wilford and 2005 first-round draft pick Matt Jones as the starters. Jones has a ton of potential and is a huge target, but as a converted quarterback, he is still very green and perhaps not ready to take on a starring role just yet. Wilford lacks speed and is not great at getting separation, but he is a big target and has developed a nice chemistry with Leftwich. Former first-rounder Reggie Williams is the #3 receiver. At tight end, Jacksonville plans to feature their top pick in this year’s draft, Marcedes Lewis. Lewis has tons of potential, but he missed most of the preseason with an injury, and there are doubts as to how ready he is. Still, with the lack of weapons in the receiving corps, expect Leftwich to try him early.

The most pivotal player on offense will be RB Fred Taylor. If Taylor can have a big season, the offense will ride on his back and be fine. Otherwise, the Jaguars could be in trouble. The knock on Taylor has always been his durability, but he is such a talented runner. He is a big guy, so he can run over people, but he also has great moves, can turn on a dime and has a great burst of speed. He will be playing behind an offensive line that is steady. But if he misses any time, like last year, the Jags offense could be in big trouble. The best back behind him, Greg Jones, is lost for the season.

The Jacksonville defense is another story. While they lack big-name stars, they are one of the best units around. Like most great defenses, it starts in the middle. DT’s John Henderson and Marcus Stroud are huge bodies. Stroud, the better of the two and a perennial Pro Bowl player, is also adept at rushing the quarterback. DE Reggie Hayward (8.5 sacks) is their main threat as a pass rusher. Hayward is also very stout vs. the run. Opposite him is Paul Spicer, who chipped in with 7.5 sacks of his own in 2005. The two are better pass rushers than their numbers indicate, but because the Jags don’t play with a lot of runaway leads, teams don’t pass as much against the Jacksonville defense. Veterans Marcellus Wiley and Rob Meier provide solid depth at both positions.

Mike Peterson anchors the linebackers. Peterson does not take on blocks that well, but playing behind mammoth DT’s Henderson and Stroud, it matters little. Peterson is an excellent athlete and he seems to always be around the ball. He is also very effective in pass coverage, which means he stays in on passing downs as well. Daryl Smith, who recorded 80 tackles and 4.0 sacks last year, is more than adequate on the strong side. He can run with almost any back or tight end in the league. On the weak side, Pat Thomas has made great strides in the pre-season and is looking to push Nick Greisen for playing time.

Rashean Mathis made a name for himself last year at cornerback by picking off 5 passes and becoming one of the better cover men in the league. While he will bite on double moves, Mathis is a tall corner who will win jump balls and he is fast enough to stay in a receiver’s hip pocket. Opposite Mathis, the Jaguars return Brian Williams. After missing almost all of last season, Donovin Darius returns at strong safety. Darius is a solid tackler and is a monster against the run. He will be flanked by Deon Grant at free safety. Grant takes too many chances so he can be a liability at times, but he has great hands and makes a lot of plays.

In the end, this is a Jaguars team that will be severely hampered by its lack of offensive fire power. They should still win more games than they will lose, but with a tougher schedule this year, they will fall short of a playoff berth.


3. Tennessee Titans (6-10)

Head Coach: Jeff Fischer (13th year)
2005 Record: (4-12)
Key Acquisitions: QB Kerry Collins, WR David Givens, S Chris Hope, LB David Thornton
Key Departures: C Justin Hartwig, QB Steve McNair, S Tank Williams,

Overview:
After another miserable season in 2005 in which they were still trapped in salary cap hell, the Titans seem ready to come back from the league’s basement. Tennessee will be looking to build on an off-season that saw them bring in WR David Givens from the Patriots and S Chris Hope of Pittsburgh, as well as standout LB David Thornton of Indianapolis, all through free agency. The Titans also picked up Texas quarterback Vince Young in the first round and RB LenDale White from USC in the second round.

Still, the Titans suffered one loss that could come close to canceling out all those additions: QB Steve McNair, after a long battle with management, was traded away to the Baltimore Ravens. McNair was getting up in age, but he was the leader of the offense. At first, it looked like Billy Volek would finally get his chance to start. But he seemed disinterested in training camp and was unimpressive in the pre-season. So 2 weeks before the start of the season, Tennessee brought in Kerry Collins. At this point, it looks like he will be the starter. Collins has a big arm and he is very experienced and should pick up the system quite easily, but he lacks mobility and just came off a subpar season with the Raiders. Collins is evidently a stopgap solution, with Vince Young waiting in the wings. Most scouts are divided on Young’s potential. But while they might disagree on whether he will become a good player in this league, they all agree that, barring an injury, he should see almost no action this year.

The strength and depth of this offense is at running back. In Chris Brown, Travis Henry and LenDale White, the Titans possess 3 backs capable of starting on many teams in this league. Brown, who has durability concerns, had a great training camp and pre-season and will begin the season as the starter. Brown needs to learn to run with his shoulders lower, or he will continue to get hurt. That being said, he is a good one-cut type runner with good vision and enough speed to get to the outside. Henry is like a tiny little bulldozer. He runs with a lot of power and always keeps his legs going. He does have a tendency to put the ball on the ground. White, the prized rookie, shared the backfield with Reggie Bush for most of his career at USC. The Titans will probably use him on short-yardage situations at first, but if Brown or Henry falters, look for him to get more playing time. White has surprising speed, and like Jerome Bettis, he has very quick feet for a man his size. Rookie Ahmard Hall is the fullback.

Things do not look as rosy at wide receiver. Givens will be one of the starters. Givens has good hands and is a big enough target, but he has yet to play a full season in his career. And so far, his best season is 2005 where he caught 59 passes and 2 touchdowns, hardly #1 receiver-like numbers (and that was with Tom Brady throwing to him). The other starter is Drew Bennett. Bennett is tall and lanky, but he lacks breakaway speed. He is mostly a possession receiver and is better suited as a #3 receiver. There is hardly any depth behind them. Fortunately for Collins, he will have TE Ben Troupe to throw to when things break down. Troupe is a good receiver and always seems to find the soft spot in zones. Erron Kinney backs him up.

While the Titans’ offense got most of the attention during the off-season, it is the defense that will determine how good they can be this year. If the unit plays up to its potential, Tennessee’s record could be better than the one we predict here. When all starters all healthy, the defensive line is among the best in the league. DE Kyle Vanden Bosch had a career year in 2005, posting 12.5 sacks and being stout against the run. DT Albert Haynesworth is a dominating force inside, but he doesn’t stay healthy enough and takes too many plays off. But when he is on his game, he is one of the best. The Titans also picked up DT Robaire Smith from the Texans after the last cuts of the pre-season, and he will enter a rotation that will also include starter Randy Starks and rookie Jesse Mahelona. Travis Laboy (6.5 sacks) is the other starter at defensive end.

The linebacking corps was really upgraded with the addition of ex-Colt David Thornton. Thornton can make plays all over the field and he takes over the strong side. Keith Bulluck, another player with a high motor and a great leader, is the starter on the weak side. Peter Sirmon is adequate in the middle.

The secondary has some big names, but also a big question mark in second-year CB Pacman Jones. Jones a terrific training camp and pre-season before he got himself into trouble with the law again. Last year, Jones played well at times, but he suffered too many lapses. The Titans are hoping he will cut down on mistakes this season, but don’t look for that to happen. The other starter is Andre Woolfolk. Woolfolk is unspectacular but very steady. He doesn’t make enough plays to be considered among the best at his position, but he rarely gets beaten. The safety position gets a huge upgrade with the addition of FS Chris Hope from Pittsburgh. Hope is a hard hitter and makes plays all over the field. Now that he is out of the shadow of Troy Polamalu, he should get his due. Lining up at strong safety will be Lamont Thompson, who is a force against the run. Depth is a concern.

It is evident that the Titans are still reeling from their years in salary cap hell. Some positions still need to be overhauled and depth is a concern down the whole roster. Still, this is a team that is on the rise again, and they seem to be on the right track. Just don’t expect them to make their leap back to respectability this year.


4. Houston Texans (5-11)

Head Coach: Gary Kubiak (1st year)
2005 Record: (3-13)
Key Acquisitions: C Mike Flanagan, WR Eric Moulds, TE Jeb Putzier, DE N.D. Kalu, OT Ephraim Salaam, RB Ron Dayne, DE Anthony Weaver
Key Departures: WR Corey Bradford, WR Jabar Gaffney, S Marcus Coleman, DT Robaire Smith

Overview:
The biggest news coming out of the Houston Texans camp this off-season was the fact that they passed up Reggie Bush in the draft in order to select DE Mario Williams (more on Williams later). That might’ve been a bogus move by former General Manager Charlie Casserly, but more significantly, the Texans will be starting the season with a whole new regime in place. Gary Kubiak, who used to coach Denver’s offense, is in as head coach. Kubiak is a brilliant offensive mind, and he should help the team get out of the funk they have been in ever since entering the league.

One of the first moved Kubiak made was to have the team resign QB David Carr to a long-term extension. Carr has a boatload of potential, but has never really blossomed. But he should benefit tremendously from Kubiak’s presence. Carr can move really well and has a strong arm, so he will fit well in the new west-coast style offense Houston will use. Carr spent the whole off-season working on his mechanics and he looked better in pre-season than he has in years. What should help him more than anything is an improved offensive line. Kubiak brought in former Packers head coach Mike Sherman to coach the O-line. The Texans will integrate the same kind of cut blocking techniques that have made the Denver offensive line so successful. LT Ephraim Salaam, while no standout, is an improvement over former starter Seth Wand, who was released. He will alternate with rookie Charles Spencer as the man charged with protecting Carr’s blindside. C Mike Flanagan comes in from Green Bay, and he will anchor the line and make the calls at the line of scrimmage. He brings in a lot of veteran leadership. Chester Pitts and Fred Weary are adequate at guard, and former Dolphins center Seth McKinney is ready to step in case of an injury. Zach Wiegert, who really improved last year as the season went on, is the starting right tackle. While this is far from a great unit, expect Carr to take less than the 62 sacks he suffered last year.

Carr will also benefit from a vastly improved receiving corps. Eric Moulds comes in from Buffalo to be the #2 receiver opposite Andre Johnson. Moulds does not have the breakaway ability he once had, but he still has very good hands and is an excellent possession receiver. Look for him to become a security blanket for Carr. Johnson should also benefit from Moulds’ presence. Johnson was double-teamed on every play last year, but that shouldn’t be the case anymore. Johnson is a legitimate game breaker. He has great hands, awesome vertical jumping ability and is very fast. Look for him to explode the same way he did in 2004. Kevin Walter, who came in from Cincinnati, will see action as the #3 receiver. TE Jeb Putzier, who Kubiak brought with him from Denver, is a huge upgrade in the passing game over Mark Bruener, who is much more of a blocking tight end. Also, rookie Owen Daniels has looked great in training camp and the Texans are excited at the possibilities in using two-TE sets.

The big question mark on offense is at running back. Starter Domanick Davis was lost for the season with a knee injury. The Texans brought in Ron Dayne from Denver to challenge rookie Wali Lundy and incumbent Vernand Morency for playing time. Somehow, Reggie Bush looks like he would’ve been a good fit there. Still, Kubiak, aling with Mike Shanahan, was a master of turning no-names into star running backs. It will be tougher with a subpar offensive line, but we think Houston will be ok. They’ll have trouble running on tough defenses, but should do ok against the weaker ones.

DE Anthony Weaver, who comes over from Baltimore, will start on one end. But all eyes will be opposite him. Rookie Mario Williams, whom the Texans chose over Reggie Bush with the first pick in the draft, will need a monster season to justify the pick. Physically, Williams reminds scouts of Panthers standout Julius Peppers. He is extremely fast for a player his size, and he has the long arms scouts love. But he was known for taking too many plays off in college. He also got many of sacks in spurts and against weaker teams. The Texans will do everything to make him successful. They will move him everywhere on the line and have him the QB from different angles. Jason Babin, a former first rounder himself, and N.D. Kalu provide good depth.

At linebacker, Miami castoff Morlon Greenwood is the best of the trio. The Texans will start promising rookie Demeco Ryans in the middle. Ryans has all the tools, but some think he might not be ready to start yet. Shantee Orr is the other starter. This is an area of concern for the team.

The star of the defensive backfield is CB Dunta Robinson. Robinson is an excellent CB who has wonderful pure cover skills. He takes away one side of the field. He can also come up with a big play, and is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. Opposite him is Lewis Sanders. Sanders is nowhere as fast nor as good as Robinson and he will get picked on a lot this year. Phillip Buchanon, who gets burned way too much, is the nickel back. Buchanon loves to go for the big play, and he gets his share, but he is a liability far too often. Glenn Earl and C.C. Brown are adequate at best at safety.

The arrival of Gary Kubiak no doubt brings a breath a fresh air to a team that badly needed it. His coaching and intricate schemes will probably turn the offense into a potent one, but there are way too many questions marks on defense. The Texans are still a year or two away from being contenders.

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Check back here on Monday... I will finish the last 3 divisions over the weekend. Then, on Tuesday, I will give my playoff and Super Bowl predictions, as well as my overall impressions of the first weekend of Football of the year. And for the following weeks, I will post my review of each week every Tuesday in a segment I will call my NFL Tuesday Musings...

Enjoy Sunday everyone... we've been waiting for it long enough!

Dwarf out